A bag contains 3 red marbles and 4 blue marbles. Then, marbles are drawn from the bag, at random, without replacement. If the first marble drawn is red, what is the probability that the second marble is blue? Although this example is too simple and can be solved ad hoc, it is still important to practice how to model problems such as these in the correct way, so below is one way you might do it. P(2nd blue and 1st red) We need P(2nd blue|1st red): P(2nd blue|1st red) = ----------------------- P(1st red) P(1st red) = 3/7 The denominator P(1st red) is straightforward: we have 7 balls in total, 3 of them are red, so P(1st Red) = 3/7. The numerator is less obvious, but not by much. We can rewrite it as P(2nd blue and 1st Red) = (# of pairs where the first is red and the second is blue) / (total # of possible pairs). Total num of possible pairs is Perm(7,2) = 7! /(7 - 2)! = 7 * 6 = 42 3 options for the first ball (3 reds) and 4 options for the second ball (4 blues), so 3 * 4 = 12. P(2B and 1R) = 12 / 42 = 2/7. P(2B|1R) = (2/7) / (3/7) = 2/3. -------------------- FR = first red marble FB = first blue marble SR = second red marble SB = second blue marble outcomes in experiment: total number of outcomes: 2P7 = 7! / (7-2)! = 7 * 6 = 42 # Permutation number of outcomes in event (FR and SB): 3 * 4 = 12 probability: P(FR) = 3/7 P(FR and SB) = 12 / 42 = 2/7 # Classical definition of probability P(SB | FR) = P(SB and FR) / P(FR) # Conditional Probability = P(FR and SB) / P(FR) = 2/7 / 3/7 = 2/3